Ecuadorians go to Polls on 9 February

It's never a bad idea to try to understand the headspace of the people you'll be seeing when you go on a trip. Besides being a learning experience, it gives you more context for what you might be observing around you and the potential for greater empathy with those who'll be working to make yours a wonderful trip. On 9 February, Ecuadorians go to the polls to elect a presidend and the members of their national legislative assembly.  

Ecuadorians have had a tumultuous time with their presidents for as long as CNH Tours has been paying attention (since the mid 1990's). It's very rare that a president finishes his full term, either being chased out of the country, resign under threat of impeachment or simply physically run out of office.  At one point in the early 2000's, Ecuador was run by a triumviate - three presidents at the same time..  

What follows is from the Financial Post dated 2 January. 

 

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa arrives at Carondelet Palace in Quito, Ecuador, on Oct. 17, 2023. (Editor's Note: CNH Tours founder Marc Patry once met with a previous president of Ecuador (Lucio Gutierrez) in Carondelet Palace on UNESCO business - during the course of the meeting, crowds could be heard chanting outside "Out with Lucio!" - three days later, Gutierrez had fled the country). 

President Daniel Noboa hopes to secure his first full term in Ecuador’s general election on Feb. 9. All 151 seats in the country’s National Assembly are also up for grabs.

The U.S.-educated son of Ecuador’s wealthiest man, Noboa came to office via a two-round snap election held in August and October 2023. The vote followed the resignation of former President Guillermo Lasso, who dissolved the legislature to avoid being impeached. Noboa was elected to finish Lasso’s term, which began in 2021.

Like Lasso, Noboa is conservative, and he has focused his presidency on combating violent crime. Ecuador has experienced rising insecurity and homicide rates as it has become a hot spot for cocaine trafficking in recent years. While on the campaign trail in 2023, one of Noboa’s opponents was assassinated; Ecuador’s attorney general later linked the killing to criminal gangs.

After a spate of attacks last January, Noboa declared Ecuador to be in an “internal armed conflict,” instituting a state of emergency and deploying troops to stabilize the country. Months later, voters approved a Noboa-backed referendum to tighten security measures. Despite the broad public support, legal experts and human rights activists worry that the measure could endanger due process and the rule of law.

Ecuador is also wrestling with post-pandemic economic devastation. With so much money devoted to fighting gangs, the government has even fewer resources to address its deficit. Noboa has courted the United States, the International Monetary Fund, and others for help. Last year, he secured more than $93 million in assistance from Washington, to be delivered over five years.

What’s more, Noboa announced that he would propose a constitutional amendment to reauthorize the presence of foreign military bases on Ecuadorian soil. Former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa disallowed such bases in 2008, forcing the United States to shutter an outpost on Ecuador’s Pacific coast.

Correa, accused of corruption by the U.S. government, is currently living in exile in Belgium, but he still wields influence over Ecuador’s politics. Luisa González, who served in Correa’s government from 2007 to 2017 and lost to Noboa in 2023, plans to run for president again this year.

Also on the ballot is Leonidas Iza, who heads Ecuador’s powerful Indigenous confederation. Controversial businessman Jan Topić is in the mix, too.

Noboa’s approval rating has fallen in recent months, but polls still show him on top ahead of next month’s election. He is trailed by González, Topić, and Iza. If no candidate wins at least 40 percent of the vote with at least a 10-point lead in the first round, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff on April 13. Legislators are elected via a mixed-method proportional system.

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