El Niño and the Galápagos: certainty remains elusive

CNH Tours owners first arrived in Galapagos at the tail end of the last severe El Niño to affect the islands (1997-98).  Conditions were very warm and humid, there was plenty of rain.  Sea temperatures were very warm (no wetsuits needed!).  These conditions reduced the productivity of the marine ecosystems and had a devastating effect on most species that depended on the sea for food (marine iguanas, penguins, sea birds etc...).  In contrast, terrestrial ecosystems, with the good rains, thrived.  

We are now seeing an upsurge in social media mentions of a possible El Niño affecting Galapagos this coming year. Is this warranted?  Should visitors be concerned?

We've seen this before.  The U.S. National Atmospheric and Oceanographic Administration (NOAA - thank you US for operating this excellent organization) regularly publishes predictions on the chances and severity of an El Niño event and updates them monthly.  

But how accurate are these predictions?  And when they are correct, how does a predicted El Niño affect the visitor experience in Galapagos? 

NOAA's Sea Surface Temperatures - how much they depart from average in the past 4 weeks.  Galapagos waters show as having been 1-2 degrees Celsius warmer than average.

Looking at the NOAA page, you'll read that there is currently a 61% chance of an El Niño developing in 2026. Yet if there is one consistent lesson from decades of observation, it is that El Niño is inherently difficult to predict in timing, strength and local effects. The system itself is irregular, cycling every two to seven years but with wide variability in intensity and duration. Even major events have defied expectations—arriving late, peaking differently than forecast, or weakening unexpectedly. For travellers and planners alike, this means that while probabilities can be assigned, the lived conditions in the Galápagos cannot be forecast with precision months in advance.

Over the past 30 years, the Pacific has produced roughly 8–10 El Niño events, depending on classification thresholds. These include notable episodes in 1997–98, 2002–03, 2009–10, 2015–16, and 2023–24, alongside several weaker events. However, only a small subset—principally the 1997–98 event, and less so the 2015–16 event —qualify as having had a significant effect in Galapagos. These are the episodes that left a clear imprint in the islands: elevated sea temperatures, disrupted marine food chains, coral bleaching, and visible changes in wildlife behaviour. In contrast, most weaker or moderate El Niño years produced far subtler, often barely perceptible impacts for visitors.

This distinction is critical. While all El Niño events share the same underlying mechanism—warmer ocean temperatures and reduced upwelling—their ecological consequences in Galapagos are not usually important. A weak event may simply mean warmer water and greener landscapes; a strong event can temporarily restructure entire marine ecosystems. Even then, impacts vary by location within the archipelago and by timing within the event. As a result, two El Niño years can deliver markedly different visitor experiences, despite being driven by the same climatic phenomenon.

For 2026–27, the outlook points toward a moderate event, with some risk of stronger conditions. But history suggests caution: only a minority of El Niño episodes materially alter the Galápagos experience, and those that do are difficult to anticipate with confidence until they are well underway.  Plain English Conclusion: Based on previous experience, it's way too early to tell if an El Niño of any strength will have an effect of any significance on the Galapagos visitor experience over the next 12 months.  

For visitors, the implication is less about avoiding El Niño than understanding its variability. The islands remain compelling in all phases—what changes is not whether the experience is worthwhile, but the particular character it takes in any given year.

 

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