El Niño is one of the most important forces shaping conditions in Galápagos, but its effects are not nearly as predictable as the headlines sometimes suggest. A strong El Niño generally means warmer seas around the islands, reduced upwelling of the cold, nutrient-rich water on which much of the marine food web depends, and—if the warming extends strongly into the eastern Pacific around Galápagos—warmer, wetter conditions on land. During the exceptional 1997–98 event, rainfall was extraordinary and the reduction in marine productivity had serious consequences for several wildlife populations. For visitors, such conditions can mean unusually warm water, greener landscapes and more rain, while some marine animals and seabirds may experience food shortages or altered breeding success.

The important qualification is that not all strong El Niños behave alike in Galápagos. The 2015–16 El Niño, for example, was one of the strongest ever measured in the tropical Pacific—rivaling or exceeding 1997–98 according to some commonly used indices—yet rainfall in Galápagos remained surprisingly close to average. Recent research suggests that what matters greatly to Galápagos is not simply the headline strength of El Niño across the broad Niño 3.4 region used by NOAA (the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Commission), but where the warm water is concentrated and, especially, what happens to sea-surface temperatures immediately around the archipelago. An El Niño centred farther west in the Pacific can therefore produce very different Galápagos conditions from an apparently similar event whose strongest warming extends all the way east toward Ecuador and the islands.

This makes predicting the visitor experience particularly difficult months in advance. Forecasts may give us increasing confidence that an El Niño will occur, and even that it will be strong, without telling us precisely how warm the waters around Galápagos will become, how much the normal upwelling will weaken, or how much rain individual islands will receive. Even during a substantial El Niño, Galápagos does not cease to be an extraordinary wildlife destination; rather, the conditions visitors encounter can shift—warmer seas, different marine activity, greener vegetation, heavier showers or, in an extreme eastern-Pacific event, significant ecological disruption. The sensible approach, therefore, is to follow El Niño forecasts closely while resisting the temptation to translate a particular NOAA index directly into predictions about what visitors will actually experience in Galápagos.

 

WHAT DOES LOCAL KNOWLEDGE HAVE TO CONTRIBUTE?

Juan Salcedo, with his family, is the owner of the Samba (the ship we use for our Active Galapagos trips).  He grew up in the Galapagos Islands, has the following thoughts on how the current is manifested in Galapagos:

El Niño is definitely a concern for everyone and we are particularly worried for our penguins and cormorants. 

I have witnessed El Niño 97-98, 2016-2017 and the most current 2022-2023. The last 2 barely deserve mention because they didn’t develop to be major in Galapagos. 

2016 was of consideration for the coast of Perú and Ecuador but only had localized damage in the Islands. Certainly very dry and short for the Galapagos, specifically when you compare it with 82-83 and 97-98.

Currently, NOAA is confirming El Niño is here and we are witnessing heavier precipitation than usual this time of year in all the big islands. However, it doesn’t rain as long or heavy as 2016 and not nearly as close as 97-98. The winds keep blowing and, we don’t have major decline in wildlife in the archipelago.

We have seen the arrival of unusual species that are an indicator of El Niño on the coast of South America. Peruvian boobies, Guanay cormorant and even a White tailed tropic bird that is the first record ever for Ecuador and the Galapagos (they live 3000 kms from here!)

I could talk about this forever.

 

Juan Salcedo (standing)

 

We understand that your guests may be concerned given the reports in the news. We can reassure people that ENSO is not going to stop them from having a wonderful Galapagos experience. It never rains all day all night, especially when you are on a boat (towns are a different story). Plus, El Niño has been a thing since we have the Pacific the way we have it and our species have some resilience to it. A bonus: Warmer and clearer waters for longer snorkeling!

Finally, we have no certainty of the duration, strength and results after the following dry season. If it arrives and the warm waters go back to the west Pacific, La Niña will be stronger than ever. That means we will have to worry about finches, mockingbirds and the recovery of the vermillion flycatcher or the rewinding of Floreana.

Struggle is part of my home and what drives change. Only privilege people can experience that, on the Samba.

In the end, we just cannot say what the potential effects may be, how intense it can be, and if/where it might be most manifested. So far, the effects have been modest. 

 

Cultural & Natural Heritage Tours - Chart Your Path to Wonder

www.cnhtours.com

Galapagos / The Arctic / Antarctica / Okavango / Madagascar / Easter Island / Pantanal... and more!

 

 Contact us for more information

 

SIGN UP TO OUR NEWSLETERS FOR UPDATES ON TRIPS AND OCCASIONAL DEALS